Recovery from Alcoholism free essay sample

Examines Alcoholics Anonymous, atheistic/humanistic approach, cognitive behavioral therapy, intervention and the role of the media. This paper attempts to evaluate some current materials about the problem of alcohol abuse and to estimate how effective they are in educating and enlightening the public about this problem. This small selection represents merely a random sampling of the vast amount of information on this subject, which ranges from the committed to the skeptical, and from the intensely scientific to the frothy. An effort has been made to choose the more serious attempts to discuss this problem. At this time any discussion of alcoholism needs to begin with a discussion of Alcoholics Anonymous, whose program, which has spread around the world since its founding in 1935, is unarguably the most effective approach yet found for dealing with the age-old scourge of alcoholism, about which even the ancient Greeks made jokes. However, to say that it is the most effective is

The impact of the recession on the value of oil and gas companies in the UK The WritePass Journal

The impact of the recession on the value of oil and gas companies in the UK Introduction The impact of the recession on the value of oil and gas companies in the UK IntroductionStatement of ProblemResearch QuestionsResearch ObjectivesContribution – Significance of the Objectives and the Expected OutcomeBrief Literature ReviewThe Efficient Market HypothesisCapital Asset Pricing Model and share betas  The Dividend Valuation ModelRecession and its effect on the UK Oil and Gas IndustryResearch MethodologyResearch MethodMethod of Analysis and FindingsForm of presentationTimetable of Activities (Gantt chart).ReferencesBooksInternetRelated Introduction Recession has existed as long as man and in the past it could be consolidated to one region. Nowadays, recession has become a global concern because once a region is affected; it can easily spread across the global economy. The world has faced some serious economic break downs over the past centuries some of which include; the stock market bubble in 1850, the 1929 Wall Street crash, the 1974 crash, the 1987 crash; called black Monday, the dotcom bubble of March 2000, the 9/11 attack in America and the most recent financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgages in the US. Recession has a lot of effects on an economy as well as the industries engaged in trade in the economy. During a recession most companies lose value and this has a lot of effects on stakeholders; that is, employees and shareholders. The recent financial crisis caused firms to loss over 40% of their share value and had tremendous effects on major economies like Japan, China and the UK. The Oil and Gas Industry has also been affected by recession over the last decade. In August 2005, the price of oil was $60 per barrel and by July 2008 it had reached $147 per barrel as result of the recession brought about by the financial crisis. However, various theories have been developed to understand what determines the true value of a company. Some of these theories include the dividend valuation model, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) Statement of Problem Most studies have indicated a strong link between the share prices of a company, its earnings and its beta. This research is aimed at investigating whether recession has a positive or negative effect on the value of companies in the UK with the case being the oil and gas industry. While future earnings and share betas are increasingly becoming popular in determining share prices,   current earnings are   being used as a bench mark for share prices rise and fall or a better indicator for takeover. The relative importance of   each of these indicators in predicting share prices or company value is still unknown, because sometimes investors use different  methods  at  different  times in calculating or estimating company value. Research Questions As a perfect guide and means of getting a good direction throughout this research, I intend to answer the following questions in this research.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   What determines the value of a company?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   How does recession affect oil and gas companies?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Do post recession values of the company’s share price depend on the recession?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   What are the effects of recession on the global economy?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   What will be the necessary steps taken to prevent such a huge impact on the oil and gas industry in the future? Research Objectives The main aim of this research is to investigate the impact of the recent recession trends on the value of oil and gas industry in theUK, its effects on the economy, as well as challenges faced by oil and gas companies to maintain their value. This research also seeks to identify if the prices quoted by oil and gas companies in the stock exchange market reflect their true value. Therefore, my objectives are to:-   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Investigate the major determinants of the value of a company.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Investigate the effects of recession on the price of a share.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   To identify whether current earnings, future earnings, and share betas are of importance to a prospective investor.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Analyse the effects of recession on the global economy.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Analyse the effects of recession on oil and gas companies in theUK.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Recommend solutions based on this research and other findings to prevent such a huge impact in future. Contribution – Significance of the Objectives and the Expected Outcome From my previous experience in the financial sector and now undertaking a financial orientation course, this research is going to ease my understanding of the stock exchange market, how it functions and how public information affects the prices of shares in the stock exchange. This research will also help in exploring the various techniques used in company value evaluation which will aid top level management in identify the most powerful indicators and enable them shape their share prices with better accuracies. During recession the beta or risk of a share is higher hence this research will also explain how relevant the beta of a share affects its price. Brief Literature Review Up to this date no theory has been developed to explain the movement of share prices in the stock exchange market. This has made it very difficult for prospective shareholders not to easily predict prices for shares for buying and selling purposes. Bodie et al, (2002) argued that any information that could be used in predicting stock price must have been reflected in share price; hence only new information into the market can influence the upward and downward movement of prices of shares. Share prices are always characterised with their unpredictable nature, this is because the prices of shares usually move with respect to the information that enters the market. If the information is positive, there will be an upward movement in the prices of shares and if the information is negative, there will be a downward movement in the prices of shares. This negative information is common during recession which will be the primary focus of this study. The idea that share prices already reflect all relevant information leads us to the efficient market hypothesis. The Efficient Market Hypothesis Lumby and Jones (2003) stated that a stock market is said to be efficient if the market price of a company’s shares rapidly and correctly reflects all relevant information as it becomes available. In this regard, if all information turns out to be entirely reliable and complete, share prices could be relied upon to correctly reflect the true economic worth of the shares. In such a market overvalued or undervalued shares would not exist. To say share prices reflect the true economic worth of a company is an overstatement because share prices are a function of future expectations which   deals with uncertainty; hence share prices reflect all relevant available information. The efficiency of the stock market in pricing securities is one of the fundamental questions researchers often ask. The objective of an investor dealing with stock market is to identify mispriced shares. Purchase undervalued shares before the price rises and sell overvalued securities before the price falls. There are three basic analysis investors use to identify mispriced securities; Technical analysis, fundamental analysis and insider information. Technical analysis: Analyst study share price movements with the intention of discovering a pattern in movements. Once this pattern is identified for a particular company and if they see one of these patterns starting to develop, they believe they are then able to predict the shares future course of movements and so give either buy or sell investments advice. The fundamental analyst: A variety of information is a analysed with the use of share valuation models to determine the value of a share. Comparing between the actual worth of the share with the market price is the objective here. If the worth is more than the market price of the share, then the share is undervalued and hence a buy advice and conversely a sell advice if the share is overvalued. Insider information: All investors are looking for information insight and connections which they believe are not yet fully reflected in the market price. Although this theory recognizes the importance of information in shaping share prices, it fails to indicate which among these indicators have a powerful influence over share prices. Capital Asset Pricing Model and share betas According to CAPM, the price of a share is related to the risk of holding the asset. At a relatively high risk, investors will be expecting higher returns and as such will bid dawn the share price. This is based on the assumptions that the investor is holding a well diversified portfolio and as such the unsystematic risk have all been diversified .Therefore, the return expected is   compensation for the market risk, this means that, the expected return from an investment in share is equal to risk-free return plus risk premium ( Risk premium being the market price of systematic risk). Formulated by Sharp in 1964, he argued that creating portfolio reduces company’s risk. He divided the risk into two categories namely the systematic or market risk or the unsystematic or diversifiable risk Unsystematic risk: This risk is associated with specific factors affecting the company such as the quality of management, advertisement, research and development. According to Sharp, the systematic risk decrease as the number of investments in a portfolio increases. A rational investor should hold an efficient portfolio whereby all the unsystematic risk have been diversified away. The systematic risk: This is called the market risk. It can be defined as the extent to which a company’s   cash flow is affected by general economic factors such as inflation, interest rate, exchange rates. When there is a recession there is going to be a general fall in the share prices of all the companies. The rate at which company’s share price is affected depends on the risk associated with that particular company. This risk factor is called betas Share Betas   is the relationship between the systematic risk of company and the overall risk of stock market (market risk). It therefore   measures the degree of responsiveness of the expected return of the share relative to the expected return of the market. For example if expected return of the market falls and rises, that of the company will fall and rise in proportion of its beta. It therefore measures the degree of variability of company’s return in relation to the expected market return. Although this model has been criticized because of numerous unrealistic assumptions that question its predictive powers, the model can be credited for providing financial managers with a suitable project discount rate.   The model concludes by saying the greater the share beta the higher the risk associated with that asset and hence investors are expecting a higher return from the share. The result is the share price will fall or better still the higher the beta the higher the discount rate and hence share price falls. The weaknesses of CAPM let to the introduction of the Three Facto Model by Fama and French and in 1976 Stephen Ross developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory which completely transformed the single Facto CAPM   to a multi Facto Beta Model.   The Dividend Valuation Model According to the model share prices are only determine by expected future level of dividends and the systematic risk of future dividend flows. It can be expressed as .   Where, PE is price of share, D is dividend payout, and   is cost of equity. The model assumes that future expected dividend flow will remain at a constant level for all future time period ( a level in perpetuity). Although some companies have been observed to have an approximated constant dividend per share over a longtime, in practice most company’s dividend per share are subject to changes over time. This has let to a more realistic version of the model which explains the growth of dividends at a constant rate. It can be expressed as   . Where, PE is share price, Ke is cost of equity and g is growth rate.this model   has been criticized for not providing information about share price when companies retain all or a greater proportion of earnings. Recession and its effect on the UK Oil and Gas Industry A recession is characterised with falling property prices, rising cost and personal debt and those mostly affected by it will those with low incomes. Standards of living will also fall as a result of recession and low income families will have no other option other than reducing the amount spent on basic goods and fundamentals. Estimates show that September’s 16 year high in the rate of inflation will add  £3 billion to the UK’s welfare bill. Those who will be greatly affected will include the elderly and the disabled who live on a poor diet and inadequately heated homes (Research Summary, 2008) At the level of the stock market, investments that demand on a buoyant stock market will become increasingly devalued, a trend that may be exuberated by rising inflation. Those at risk here will include those that rely on work place pensions to sustain them through retirement and endowment policy holders who may find themselves unable to cover the value of the loan at the end of the mortgage term. Recession also comes with a lot of social ills such as more crime, violence, and anti-social behavior. At the educational sector, recession has neither been friendly. It has affected the willingness and ability of some students to study, for instance, in order to bail the economy out of the recent recession, the government has decided to increase the school fees of students by almost triple the previous amount causing more difficulties for parents to send children to school. However, some people think that recession comes with a blessing as people drink less, smoke less, eat healthier food, and spend less on extravagant spending. Recession also speeds up the business evolution forcing companies to reduce costs and adapt new processes. At the level of mortgages, people tend to lose their homes and livelihoods, for instance, in 2008, mortgage repossessions rose by 50% giving an average 305 people declared bankrupt every day. Krogdahl (2010), states that the recession has called for a reduction in cost, and team size of the company while their property portfolio works harder, however they are faced with the dilemma of whether their portfolio will split when their organization begins to grow. CIPD (2009) stated that this has been the worst recession affected by UK since the Second World War. They say that the manufacturing sector has been the sector which has and is suffering most from the recession. With respect to full time and part time workers, full time workers have been more seriously affected and they experienced a downturn of -3% during the first year of recession. There has been a generally perception that as a result of the recession more women lost their jobs than men, but this ideology was dismissed by the office of national statistics which proved that lost more jobs. Between 2008 and March 2009, men unemployment rate rose from 2.4% to 8.1% while for women it rose from 1.4% to 6.4%. According to Phillips (2009), young people between the ages of 18 and 24 suffered most from the recession when it came to layoffs while old staffs above the age of 40 years were least affected. According to Daniel (2008), most firms experience decline in profitability during recession because of the tendency of price wars which will lead to low sales which consequently lead to low revenues. Firms producing luxurious goods with price elasticity of demand 1 will experience the biggest fall in demand while firms producing basic necessities will become insulated from the effects of recession. The IMF predicted Britain falling into the recession in 2009 as its growth rate forecast fell from 1.7% to  Ã‚   -0.1%. David Blanch flower, a monetary policy committee member in the Bank of England predicted that over 2 million people will likely be unemployed by the end of 2008. ITV announced 1000 job cuts, HSBC 1100, UBS 1000 and GSK 400. Mortgage lending fell by 95% as a result of lack of bank financing which made it difficult for first time buyers to step into the property ladder. Pension expert Hargreaves Lansdown estimated that the system has lost  £250 million and is presently worth  £1000 million (Hopkins, 2008). The present going green scheme has increased most energy companies expenditure cost as extra care has to be taken so as to protect the environment. In the recent recession in theUKoil demand briefly drooped by nearly 3mbpd (million barrels per day) about half of what occurred at the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008. Redundancy and forced salary cuts have also been common side effects of the current recession (Wireline News, 2011). According to Webb (2010), in order to effectively overcome the recession, the industry needs to work collaboratively both across the sector and with Government at national, regional and local level to develop new technologies, improve working practices and efficiencies and drive down costs. This will help to enhance the UK supply chain’s comparative advantage in the global market place and ensure that the industry’s critical suppliers retain a presence here. According to Roberts (2010), all sectors of the economy virtually depend on oil such as transport, retail, agriculture, power generation and heating. The present recession has depressed demand in a temporary or sustained way as was the case in 2008. It has rendered new oil field development more difficult especially when the main reason for development is to maintain low prices. The collapse of the oil prices and uncertainty of the depth and length of recession has forced analysts to look the cost of existing and incremental oil production and the impact of price and recession on future oil demand growth. Research Methodology The research method is very relevant because the results of a research matters on the methodology used. There are two major research methods which explain how research is carried out; these are the positivism and interpretive methods (Colley and Hussey, 2009).Quantitative methods of analysis will involve working with some available data and the end result will be some kind of conclusion derived from working with the data. The ground rule here is that the researcher is independent and does not affect the subject of research (Remeniyi et al, 1998). In the research, we are trying to establish a relationship between recession and the value of a company (share price). Therefore, accounting variables such as earnings per share (EPS), dividends per share (DPS), and current earnings will be used. This research shall use data from over 30 oil and gas companies listed in theLondonstock exchange market from 2000 to 2010. The main focus will be to see if there has been any change in the as a result of the recession in the prices of shares of these companies as well as their betas and if the prices reflect their true value. This time scale covers before and during the recession. Research Method This research shall be based on secondary data. This is data that has already been documented for another purpose (Saunders, et al 2007). There are three types of secondary data; these are survey, documentary and data from other sources which can not be categorized. The data that I intend to use in this research will include share prices of oil and gas companies in the UKand this data will be obtained from the published financial statements and statistical information of the London stock exchange and from the internet through reliable search engines. Academic publications and articles will be of extreme importance especially from high profile financial writers and consultants. A more extensive literature review will aid in acquiring secondary data from popular writers. I intend to use primary data such as interviews with managers, stock brokers and analysts of some of the oil and gas companies so as to answer the research questions and give the research more credibility and reliabili ty. Interviews shall be structured and shall be done verbally. Method of Analysis and Findings In this research both quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis will be used to analyze the collected data. Quantitative method will involve the use of statistical tools such as correlation analysis, statistical tables, charts and graphs established relationships. Meanwhile the qualitative method will be consent with comparing the strength of the relationship that exist between current earnings, future earnings, and share beta with actual share prices of oil and gas companies with respect to stable economic periods and periods witnessing recession. This research will also analyse the changes of the interest rates of some of the oil and gas companies in the UK over a ten year period.    Form of presentation The work will be presented in both hard and soft copies. The hard copy will be presented in A4 paper format style. Data collected will be presented with the use of tables and graphs. Timetable of Activities (Gantt chart).    Weeks from April to August Activity    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Proposal                                           Literature Review                                        Data Collection                                        Data Analysis                                           Write   up draft                                        Edit final draft                                        Final Document                                        Complete final Report                                        References Articles and Journals   Barnes, Daniel (2008) Recession Fears Causing Debt Depression, myfinances.co.uk accessed on 12.04.2010 CIPD (2009), Jobs: The Impact of Recession and Prospects for Recovery, September.London: CharteredInstitute ofPersonnel and Development. Johnathan Krogdahl (2010), Corporate Real Estate: A study of the effects of recession for the UK’s CRE Professionals, The Curzon Partnership. Kathryn Hopkins (2008), Signs of Recession: The impact on Britain’s real economy. The Guardian. Malcolm Webb (2010), Oil and Gas UK: 2010 Oil and Gas UK Activity Survey Research Summary (2008), Effects of Recession and Those Most at Risk. Simon Roberts (2010), The Oil Crunch: A wake-up call for the UK Economy, Ove Arup Partners Ltd. Trevor Phillips (2009), Monitoring the Impact of the Recession on various Demographic Groups, Department of Work and Pensions    Books Arnold, G., (2008), Corporate Financial Management, (4th edition) Prentice Hall Bodie,Z., Kane, A. and Marcus, A.J., (2008), Investments, (7th edition) McGraw-Hill [ BKM] Remeniyi, D., Williams, B., Money, A. and Swartz, E. (1998), Doing Research in Business and management: An Introduction to Process and Methods,London, Sage. Internet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_to_2008_world_oil_market_chronology, accessed on 11.04.2011 domainmonster.com/editorials/dot_com_bubble, accessed on 11.04.2011 dailyrecord.co.uk/news/business-news, accessed on 16.04.2011

Definition and Examples of Paradox in English Grammar

Definition and Examples of Paradox in English Grammar A paradox is a  figure of speech in which a statement appears to contradict itself. Adjective: paradoxical. In everyday communication, notes H.F. Platt, paradox is mostly used for expressing astonishment or disbelief at something unusual or unexpected (Encyclopedia of Rhetoric, 2001). A compressed paradox (one thats expressed in just a few words) is called an oxymoron. Etymology: From the Greek, incredible, contrary to opinion or expectation.Pronunciation: PAR-a-doxAlso Known As: paradoxa (Greek) Examples Some of the biggest failures I ever had were successes. (attributed to American actress and singer Pearl Bailey)  The swiftest traveler is he that goes afoot. (Henry David Thoreau, Walden, 1854)If you wish to preserve your secret, wrap it up in frankness. (Alexander Smith, On the Writing of Essays. Dreamthorp, 1854)I have found the paradox, that if you love until it hurts, there can be no more hurt, only more love. (attributed to Mother Teresa)War is peace.Freedom is slavery.Ignorance is strength.(George Orwell, 1984)â€Å"Paradoxically though it may seem . . ., it is none the less true that life imitates art far more than art imitates life.† (Oscar Wilde)Language . . . has created the word loneliness to express the pain of being alone. And it has created the word solitude to express the glory of being alone. (Paul Tillich, The Eternal Now, 1963)Some day you will be old enough to start reading fairy tales again. (C.S. Lewis to his godchild, Lucy Barfield, to whom he dedicate d The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe) Perhaps this is our strange and haunting paradox here in America- that we are fixed and certain only when we are in movement. (Thomas Wolfe, You Cant Go Home Again, 1940)Yes, I must confess. I often find myself more at home in these ancient volumes than I do in the hustle-bustle of the modern world. To me, paradoxically, the literature of the so-called dead tongues holds more currency than this mornings newspaper. In these books, in these volumes, there is the accumulated wisdom of mankind, which succors me when the day is hard and the night lonely and long. (Tom Hanks as Professor G.H. Dorr in The Ladykillers, 2004) The Paradox of Catch-22 There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that concern for ones own safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didnt, but if he was sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didnt have to; but if he didnt want to he was sane and had to. (Joseph Heller, Catch-22, 1961) Kahlil Gibrans Paradoxes At times [in The Prophet by Khalil Gibran], Almustafa’s vagueness is such that you can’t figure out what he means. If you look closely, though, you will see that much of the time he is saying something specific; namely, that everything is everything else. Freedom is slavery; waking is dreaming; belief is doubt; joy is pain; death is life. So, whatever you’re doing, you needn’t worry, because you’re also doing the opposite. Such paradoxes . . . now became his favorite literary device. They appeal not only by their seeming correction of conventional wisdom but also by their hypnotic power, their negation of rational processes. (Joan Acocella, Prophet Motive. The New Yorker, Jan. 7, 2008) Loves Paradox You will notice that what we are aiming at when we fall in love is a very strange paradox. The paradox consists of the fact that, when we fall in love, we are seeking to re-find all or some of the people to whom we were attached as children. On the other hand, we ask our beloved to correct all of the wrongs that these early parents or siblings inflicted upon us. So that love contains in it the contradiction: the attempt to return to the past and the attempt to undo the past. (Martin Bergmann as Professor Levy in Crimes and Misdemeanors, 1989) The Language of Poetry Originally a paradox was merely a view which contradicted accepted opinion. By round about the middle of the 16th c. the word had acquired the commonly accepted meaning it now has: an apparently self-contradictory (even absurd) statement which, on closer inspection, is found to contain a truth reconciling the conflicting opposites. . . . Some critical theory goes so far as to suggest that the language of poetry is the language of paradox. (J.A. Cuddon, A Dictionary of Literary Terms, 3rd ed. Blackwell, 1991) Paradox as an Argumentative Strategy Useful as instruments of instruction because of the wonder or surprise they engender, paradoxes also work to undermine the arguments of ones opponents. Among the ways to accomplish this, Aristotle (Rhetoric 2.23.16) recommends in his manual for the rhetorician exposing the disjunction between an opponents public and private views on such topics as justice- a recommendation that Aristotle would have seen put into practice in the debates between Socrates and his various opponents in the Republic. (Kathy Eden, Platos Rhetoric of Education. A Companion to Rhetoric and Rhetorical Criticism, ed. by Walter Jost and Wendy Olmsted. Blackwell, 2004) G.K. Chesterton on Paradox By paradox we mean the truth inherent in a contradiction. . . . [In the paradox] the two opposite cords of truth become entangled in an inextricable knot . . . [but it is] this knot which ties safely together the whole bundle of human life. (G. K. Chesterton, The Outline of Sanity, 1926) The Lighter Side of Paradoxes I dare say that one of the strangest contradictions to beset contradiction fanciers recently was the situation confronting anybody who was seeking shelter in New York City. Not only were hotel rooms scarcer than the heath hen- after all, you could pick up an occasional heath hen before Christmas if you didnt mind going into the black market for it- but the reason for their scarcity was that most of them were occupied by people who had flocked to the National Hotel Exposition to discuss the scarcity of hotel rooms. Sounds paradoxical, doesnt it? I mean, if there arent any other paradoxes around. (S.J. Perelman, The Customer Is Always Wrong. Acres and Pains, 1947)

Attend a meetong (zone,planning, etc) Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Attend a meetong (zone,planning, etc) - Essay Example A Summary of the Meeting The meeting in point was held on September 24, 2013 and was formal and regular (not convened because of an emergency) in nature. The meeting was also a response to the need to replenish Pequannock Township’s reputation as the oldest Township in the United States, having been founded in 1695. It had been left tentatively in the previous meeting that equipping the town for disaster response, replenishing the city’s infrastructure and socio-cultural heritage. The Pequannock Township Mayor, the Deputy, clerk, Township historian and Township manager were the attendees, alongside me. Thus, the meeting was held with one single objective- improving and effecting the affairs of Pequannock Township, New Jersey as a way of strengthening the town’s reputation. The issues and problems that were raised include maintaining houses under the Planned Residential Development which was set in the early 1990s and alternatively known as the Glens; the maintena nce of Pequannock Township’s historic sites; generating more funds for running Pequannock Township more effectively; and strengthening Pequannock Township for emergency disaster response undertakings. ... Just as Colrick recommends, strengthening Pequannock Township for emergency disaster response undertakings would in turn involve using the initial sources of revenue and savings to raise funds for the same purpose. This would be followed up with educational programs that would be used as a tool to conscientize the public on disaster preparedness. The educational programs would involve the opening of community centers to target those above 18 years. Since it is most likely that high school students have not yet attained 18 years, resolutions were arrived at to integrate disaster management and preparedness to high school educational curriculum. Herein, Pequannock Township’s revenue will also go a long way in promoting disaster preparedness and emergency response, since it is robust enough; having been accrued from fees and levies exacted from utilities and enterprises such as stores, parking spaces and road levies (Colrick, 75). Personalities and Interests Represented At the Me eting The personalities and interests represented at the meeting are the Mayor of Pequannock Township, Richard Phelan, the deputy mayor, Melissa Florence-Lynch, the manager of Pequannock Township, David Hollberg, the town clerk, Jay Delaney, the Township historian, Ed Engelbart and other township officers such as Catherine Winterfield and Joel D. Vanderhoff. The extent of public discussion was far-reaching since the matters already mentioned as the main items to the meeting were to be thoroughly and exhaustively expounded on, and not be left tentatively. An Analysis Regarding Government and Politics at the Local Level in Pequannock NJ New Jersey According

TOPIC C Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

TOPIC C - Essay Example I can imagine how crucial it would be to develop analytical skills and train creative faculties of mind for every engineer who is bound to pursue a career in the industry where it takes pure heart and determination to exercise potentials toward achieving optimum results. Besides scholastic endeavour, I could foresee much fruitfulness in active participation through extra-curricular activities by which to become disposed to communicating with different kinds of people with diverse educational orientation and cultural background. This would enable socialization that is vital to my growth as an engineering student in need of learning via individual effort and that derived from dynamic human relation, in equal measures. Engaging in organizations that facilitate such activities may direct me to satisfy professional aims in the light of understanding the world better and know thereafter what I can do at best to serve it as I discover rich source of ideas and values to obtain and impart by means of constant interaction with others, in and out of the

Ryanair Company Financial Analysis Report

Ryanair Company Financial Analysis Report Ryanair is an Irish airline company which was launched in 1985 by Ryan family in Dublin. It is the first low-fare airline in European nations. Also it is considered as most successful airline in terms of profit. In addition, it is also famous for number of flights and passengers flown. Moreover its business is expanded to 44 bases, more than 1200 routes, 160 airports and 27 countries. Ryanair Holding Private limited company is leading plan airline in Europe. The aim of this report is to use economic managing formula to give a general idea of Ryanair Holding Plc. It has well financial position in direct to help another company to provide. In this report, given many information of different companies guide to improve the financial position and grooving of managing power of the organization. Also it can useful to give forecast development and future danger difficulty. In recent time, there was a big events happened in the company. Which is effecting on companys profit and loss account that given in the report. So ratio analysis is very important to improve companys financial situation. After the ratio analysis given some recommendations can help to improve organizations strength and growth and also to make batter financial position of the company. BACKGROUND: Europes biggest financial budget airline is mane of Ryanair Holding plc. It has gone a very high distance in space journey a service in the UK. It is follow to operate on the basis of Southwest Airlines system. These airlines always create travel to twice or triple on the way it comes. In this airline, 7m passengers used to fly in a year. Uses of internet which helped mover slice expenses of the sharing part. In the starting, Decan, Cathal and Shane Ryan established Ryanair with  £1m from their father, Dr. Tony Ryan, chairman CEO of Guinness Peat Aviation, the aeroplane letting huge. Ryanair made routes between Ireland and United Kingdom at starting of flying in June 1985. Entering in Dublin-London area the after that spring, finishing with British Airways and Dan Air moreover Aer Lingus. (www.fundinguniverse.com). In 2009 Ryan airs common cost per traveller was EUR 36 as compared as to EUR 68 for its curve rival Easyiet. From the years of 2007 to 2009 Ryanair arranged low cast to passengers by 13%. Ryanair has raised its numbers of passengers by 14% in 2010 and made more routes. This growth will continue next years. (www.ryanair.com). ANALYSIS: INTRODUCTION OF RATIOS AND IMPORTANCES: Ratios are mostly used as a part in understanding of financial statements. The selected ratios and finding data which are depend on the requirement of the data which are using. When the share price is reach on its higher level, at that situation want to do and choose the very good condition to sell shares. Due to this, the investors will control the performance of organization. Mostly the ratios could be designed from the data given by the financial statements. It is used in evaluate trend. Also it is used to make balance of the financial condition to select of other condition. The ratio analysis may be used in some case of future bankruptcy. (www.netmba.com). RATIOS ANALYSIS: Firstly, in the ratios analysis classified different types which depend on given information. Most important types are given below, Financial ratios Profitability ratios Financial ratios: Current Ratio: The current ratio is defined as the ratio of current assets to current liabilities: Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities Years 2010 2009 2008 Current Assets 2,725,515 2,360,059 1,898,175 Current Liabilities 1,378,683 1,279,935 1,238,204 Current ratio 1.98 1.84 1.53 Analysis: The relation between current assets and current liabilities is given in this ratio analysis. Assets is only transformed interested in cash for little period and cash are included in current assets. The ratio was 1.53 in 2008 but after that 1.84 and 1.98 in 2009 and 2010 respectively. It is useful for quality as well as quantity in financial analysis. Liquidity Ratio: Liquidity ratios give the data about an organizations capability to gather its the short term requirements of finance. To the organization, they are take part in interest of that extends small period acknowledgment to the organization. It is defined as the ratio of current assets to current liabilities: Liquidity ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities Also in some case, Liquidity Ratio = (Current Assets-Inventory) / Current Liabilities Years 2010 2009 2008 Current Assets 2,725,515 2,360,059 1,898,175 Current Liabilities 1,378,683 1,279,935 1,238,204 Liquidity Ratio 1.98 1.84 1.53 Analysis: It is helpful to known for relationship between current assets and current liabilities. In the comparison of last three, the ratios of the organization were 1.53, 1.84 and 1.98 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. So ratios were increased when passed the years. Shareholders Liquidity Ratio: It shows the relation between shareholder funds and long term debt. It is the defined as the ratio of shareholder funds to long term liabilities: Shareholders Liability Ratio = shareholders funds / shareholders liabilities Years 2010 2009 2008 Shareholders Funds 2,534,407 2,250,537 1,989,677 Long Term Liabilities 2,816,087 2,388,249 1,803,617 Shareholders Liabilities Ratio 0.90 0.94 1.10 Analysis: In this analysis, ratios were decreased when passing the years. Those ratios were 1.10, 0.94 and 0.90 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Gearing : Gearing is defined as the long term liabilities plus overdraft to shareholders funds in percentage. It shows organizations permanents assets shareholders money and fully loan of it. The higher gearing means good borrowed money to self. It is calculated by following formula: Gearing (%) = (Long Term Liabilities + Overdraft) ÃÆ'- 100 / Shareholders Funds Years 2010 2009 2008 Long term liabilities + Overdraft 2,816,087+236,216 2,388,249+188,336 1,803,617+291,670 Shareholders funds 2,534,407 2,250,537 1,989,677 Gearing 120.43 114.49 105.31 Analysis: In the gearing ratio analysis, ratios were increase when passing the years. Those ratios were 105.31, 114.49, and 120.43 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Working Capital Per Employee(Unit): It is defined as the ratio of working capital to number of employees and it is calculated by given formula in bellow, Working capital per employee = working capital / number of employees Years 2010 2009 2008 Working capital 95,367 82,414 74,042 Employee 7032 6369 5262 Proportion -13,563 -12,940 14,071 Analysis: In this analysis, ratios decreased between 2008 and 2009 and then increased between 2009 and 2010. Those ratios were -14.071, -12,940 and -13,563 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Profitability Ratios: Profitability ratios give many different method of the achievement of the organization at make profits. Profit Margin: It is defined as the ratio of profit before tax to turnover in percentage. Throughout the year scope in success on sells will differ since business to business. The reasonably change of the proportion in investigate and sometime may be stable. Purpose for vary could be bargain sells worth or growing in the sales rate. It is calculated by formula which is given bellow: Profit Margin = (Profit before tax) ÃÆ'- 100 / Turnover Years 2010 2009 2008 Profit before tax 303,389 -167,498 349,023 Turnover 2,658,521 2,730,241 2,157,958 Profit margin 11.41 -6.13 16.17 Analysis: In this analysis shows company failed in loss after 2008. Those ratios were 16.17, -6.41 and 11.41 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Return on shareholders funds: It is defined as the ratio of profit before tax to shareholders fund and it is given by following formula: Return on shareholders funds (%) = (Profit or Loss before Tax) ÃÆ'- 100/ Shareholders Funds Years 2010 2009 2008 Profit or loss before tax 303,389 167,498 349,023 Shareholders funds 2,534,407 2,250,537 1,989,677 Return on shareholders funds (%) 11.97 -7.44 17.54 Analysis: In this analysis shows, company faced loss in 2009 financial year. Those ratios were 17.54, -7.44 and 11.97 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Return on total assets (%): It is defined as the ratio of profit or loss before tax to total assets in percentage. Also it is calculated by following formula: Return on total assets (%) = (profit or loss before tax) ÃÆ'- 100 / total assets Years 2010 2009 2008 Profit or loss before tax 303,389 167,498 349,023 Total assets 6,729,178 5,928,14,147 5,031,497 Return on total assets 4.51 -2.83 6.94 Analysis: Company faced loss in 2009 financial year in this analysis. Those ratios were 6.94, -2.83 and 4.51 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Interest cover: Interest cover is the ratio of profit or loss before interest to interest paid. Calculation is given by following formula: Interest cover = profit or loss before interest / interest paid Years 2010 2009 2008 Profit or loss before interest 36,536 46,349 426,225 Interest paid 64,148 121,149 77,202 Interest cover 5.73 -0.38 5.52 Analysis: In interest cover ratio analysis shows loss in 2009. Those ratios were 5.52, -0.38 and 5.73 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Debtors Turnover: Debtors turnover is defined as the ratio of turnover to trade debtors. Its calculation is given below: Debtors turnover = turnover / trade debtors Years 2010 2009 2008 Turnover 2,658,521 2,7157,958 2,157,958 Trade debtors 39,414 38,783 27,177 Debtors turnover 67.45 70.40 79.40 Analysis: In this analysis, ratios were 79.40, 70.40 and 67.45 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Ratios decreased when passing after the years. Net assets turnover: Net assets turnover is defined as the ratio of turnover to total assets less current liabilities. Also it is calculated by following formula: Net assets turnover = turnover / total assets less current liabilities Years 2010 2009 2008 Turnover 2,658,521 2,7157,958 2,157,958 Total assets less current liabilities 5,350,494 4,648,212 3,793,294 Net assets less current liabilities 0.50 0.59 0.57 Analysis: In this analysis indicates ratios decreased in 2010. Those ratios were 0.57, 0.59 and 0.50 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. Fixed assets turnover: Fixed assets turnover is defined as the ratio of turnover to fixed assets. It is calculated by following formula: Fixed assets turnover = turnover / fixed assets Years 2010 2009 2008 Turnover 2,6558,521 2,730,241 2,157,958 Fixed assets 4,003,662 3,568,087 3,133,322 Fixed assets turnover 0.66 0.77 0.69 Analysis: In this analysis shows ratios increased in 2009 and then decreased in 2010. Those ratios were 0.69, 0.77 and 0.66 in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively. The impact of events: The events of the company were flight cancellations by volcanic ashes during18 days in between April May in 2010 and ATC (Air Traffic Controller) strike during the year of 2010. During April May, cancellation of 9400 flights, so cost of company was à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬32m and deletion of 1400 flights and more than 12000 flights late, so the loss may be à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ 32m Those two events had main impact of à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬100m loss in six months. Conclusions: In conclusion, Ryanair Holding plc is low fare and biggest financial budget airline in the world. It has 160 airports, 44 bases business to expanded, more than 1200 routes and 27 countries. It is known as most successful airline in terms of profits, flights numbers and flown of passengers. During the ratio analysis, this company has good financial position in terms of profit, but in 2010 events occurred by volcanic ashes and ATC strike. Due to evens, cancellation of 9400 flights mare than 12000 flights delayed. So events had an major impact of à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬100m loss in that 6 months. Also those are affected on companys profit and loss account and net profit of Ryanair Holding plc. Recommendations: Ryanair holding plc has hard period in last year, as the organization was making loss. Now Ryanair is reverse to good position by building profit in the starting of this year. in the analysis their revenues are well financial position in last year but the events were create some effects. It is one of biggest Irish airline in the UK as well as in the world. After making some change in tickets and facilities, it can become more low fare airline and improve its financial position batter than past. It is the recommended part to be Ryanair airline so its future opportunity is bright batter than past situation.

The Return: Midnight Chapter 14

The next morning Elena noticed that Meredith stil looked pale and languid, and that her eyes slid away if Stefan happened to glance at her. But this was a time of crisis, and as soon as the breakfast dishes were washed, Elena cal ed a meeting in the parlor. There she and Stefan explained what Meredith had missed during the visit from the sheriffs. Meredith smiled wanly when Elena told how Stefan had banished them like stray dogs. Then Elena told the story of her out-of-body experience. It proved one thing, at least, that Bonnie was alive and relatively well. Meredith bit her lip when Mrs. Flowers said this, for it only made her want to go and get Bonnie out of the Dark Dimension personal y. But on the other hand, Meredith wanted to stay and wait for Alaric's photographs. If that would save Fel ‘s Church†¦ No one at the boardinghouse could question what had happened on the Island of Doom. It was happening here, on the other side of the world. Already a couple of parents in Fel ‘s Church had had their children taken away by the Virginia Department of Child Protective Services. Punishments and retaliations had begun. How much longer would it be before Shinichi and Misao turned al the children into lethal weapons – or let loose those already turned? How long before some hysterical parent kil ed a kid? The group sitting in the parlor discussed plans and methods. In the end, they decided to make jars identical to those Elena and Bonnie had seen, and prayed that they could reproduce the writing. These jars, they were sure, were the means by which Shinichi and Misao were original y sealed off from the rest of the Earth. Therefore Shinichi and Misao had once fit into the rather cramped accommodations of the jars. But what did Elena's group have now that could lure them back inside? Power, they decided. Only an amount of Power so great that it was irresistible to the kitsune twins. That was why the priestess had tried to lure them back with her own blood. Now†¦it meant either the liquid in a ful star bal †¦or blood from an extraordinarily powerful vampire. Or two vampires. Or three. Everyone was sober, thinking of this. They didn't know how much blood would be needed – but Elena feared that it would be more than they can afford to lose. It had certainly been more than the priestess could afford. And then there was a silence that only Meredith could fil . â€Å"I'm sure you've al been wondering about this,†she said, producing the staff thing from thin air, as far as Elena could see. How did she do that? Elena wondered. She didn't have it with her and then she did. They al stared in the bright sunlight at the sleek beauty of the weapon. â€Å"Whoever made that,†Matt said, â€Å"had a twisted imagination.† â€Å"It was one of my ancestors,†Meredith said. â€Å"And I won't contest that.† â€Å"I have a question,†Elena said. â€Å"If you'd had that from the beginning of your training; if you'd been raised in that kind of world, would you have tried to kil Stefan? Would you have tried to kil me when I became a vampire?† â€Å"I wish I had a good answer to that,†Meredith said, her dark gray eyes pained. â€Å"But I don't. I have nightmares about it. But how can I ever say what I would have done if I'd been a different person?† â€Å"I'm not asking that. I'm asking you, the person you are, if you'd had the training – â€Å" â€Å"The training is brainwashing,† Meredith said harshly. Her composed fa?ade seemed about to break. â€Å"Okay, forget that. Would you have tried to kil Stefan, if you'd just had that staff?† â€Å"It's cal ed a fighting stave. And we're cal ed – people like my family, except that my parents dropped out – hunter-slayers.† There was a sort of gasp around the table. Mrs. Flowers poured Meredith more herbal tea from the pot sitting on a trivet. â€Å"Hunter-slayers,†repeated Matt with a certain relish. It wasn't hard to tel who he was thinking about. â€Å"You can just cal us one or the other,†Meredith was saying. â€Å"I've heard that out west they've got hunter-kil ers. But we hang on to tradition here.† Elena suddenly felt like a lost little girl. This was Meredith, her big sister Meredith, saying al of this. Elena's voice was almost pleading. â€Å"But you didn't even tel on Stefan.† â€Å"No, I didn't. And, no, I don't think I'd have had the courage to kil anyone – unless I'd been brainwashed. But I knew Stefan loved you. I knew he would never make you into a vampire. The problem was – I didn't know enough about Damon. I didn't know that you were fooling around so much. I don't think anybody knew that.†Meredith's voice was anguished, too. â€Å"Except me,†Elena said, flushing, with a lopsided smile. â€Å"Don't look so sad, Meredith. It worked out.† â€Å"You cal having to leave your family and your town because everyone knows you're dead, working out?† â€Å"I do,†Elena replied desperately, â€Å"if it means I get to be with Stefan.†She did her best not to think about Damon. Meredith looked at her blankly for a moment, then put her face in her hands. â€Å"Do you want to tel them or should I?†she asked, coming up for air and facing Stefan. Stefan looked startled. â€Å"You remember?† â€Å"Probably as much as you got from my mind. Bits and pieces. Stuff I don't want to remember.† â€Å"Okay.†Now Stefan looked relieved, and Elena felt frightened. Stefan and Meredith had a secret together? â€Å"We al know that Klaus made at least two visits to Fel ‘s Church. We know that he was – completely evil – and that on the second visit he planned to be a serial murderer. He kil ed Sue Carson and Vickie Bennett.† Elena interrupted quietly. â€Å"Or at least he helped Tyler Smal wood to kil Sue, so that Tyler could be initiated as a werewolf. And then Tyler got Caroline pregnant.† Matt cleared his throat as something occurred to him. â€Å"Uh – does Caroline have to kil somebody to be a ful werewolf, too?† â€Å"I don't think so,†Elena said. â€Å"Stefan says that having a werewolf litter is enough. Either way, blood is spil ed. Caroline wil be a ful werewolf when she has her twins, but she'l probably begin changing involuntarily before that. Right?† Stefan nodded. â€Å"Right. But getting back to Klaus: What was it he was supposed to have done on his first visit? He attacked – without kil ing – an old man who was a ful hunter-slayer.† â€Å"My grandfather,†Meredith whispered. â€Å"And he supposedly messed with Meredith's grandfather's mind so much that this old man tried to kil his wife and his three-year-old granddaughter. So what is wrong with this picture?† Elena was truly frightened now. She didn't want to hear whatever was coming. She could taste bile, and she was glad that she'd only had toast for breakfast. If only there had been someone to take care of, like Bonnie, she would have felt better. â€Å"I give up. So what is wrong?†Matt asked bluntly. Meredith was staring into the distance again. Final y Stefan said, â€Å"At the risk of sounding like a bad soap opera†¦Meredith had, or has, a twin brother.† Dead silence fel over the group in the parlor. Even Mrs. Flowers's Ma ma didn't put in a word. â€Å"Had or has?†Matt said final y, breaking the silence. â€Å"How can we know?†Stefan said. â€Å"He may have been kil ed. Imagine Meredith having to watch that. Or he could have been kidnapped. To be kil ed at a later time – or to become a vampire.† â€Å"And you real y think her parents wouldn't tel her?†Matt demanded. â€Å"Or would try to make her forget? When she was – what, three already?† Mrs. Flowers, who had been quiet a long time, now spoke sadly. â€Å"Dear Meredith may have decided to block out the truth herself. With a child of three it's hard to say. If they never got her professional help†¦Ã¢â‚¬ She looked a question at Meredith. Meredith shook her head. â€Å"Against the code,†she said. â€Å"I mean, strictly speaking, I shouldn't be tel ing any of you this, and especial y not Stefan. But I couldn't stand it anymore†¦having such good friends, and constantly deceiving them.† Elena went over and hugged Meredith hard. â€Å"We understand,†she said. â€Å"I don't know what wil happen in the future if you decide to be an active hunter – â€Å" â€Å"I can promise you my friends won't be on my list of victims,†Meredith said. â€Å"By the way,†she added, â€Å"Shinichi knows. I'm the one who's kept a secret from my friends al my life.† â€Å"Not any longer,†Elena said, and hugged her again. â€Å"At least there are no more secrets now,†Mrs. Flowers said gently, and Elena looked at her sharply. Nothing was ever that simple. And Shinichi had made a whole handful of predictions. Then she saw the look in the mild blue eyes of the old woman, and she knew that what was important right then was not truth or lies, or even reckonings, but simply comforting Meredith. She looked up at Stefan while stil hugging Meredith and saw the same look in his eyes. And that – made her feel better somehow. Because if it was truly â€Å"no secrets†then she would have to figure out her feelings about Damon. And she was more afraid of that than of facing Shinichi, which was saying quite a lot, real y. â€Å"At least we've got a potter's wheel – somewhere,†Mrs. Flowers was saying. â€Å"And a kiln in the back, although it's al grown over with Devil's Shoestring. I used to make flowerpots for outside the boardinghouse, but children came and smashed them. I think I could make an urn like the ones you saw if you can draw one for me. But perhaps we'd better wait for Mr. Saltzman's pictures.† Matt was mouthing something to Stefan. Elena couldn't make it out until she heard Stefan's voice in her mind. He says Damon told him once that this house is like a swap meet, and you can find anything here if you look hard enough. Damon didn't make that up! I think Mrs. Flowers said it first, and then it sort of got around, Elena returned heatedly. â€Å"When we get the pictures,†Mrs. Flowers was saying brightly, â€Å"we can get the Saitou women to translate the writing.† Meredith final y moved back from Elena. â€Å"And until then we can pray that Bonnie doesn't get into any trouble,†she said, and her voice and face were composed again. â€Å"I'm starting now.† Bonnie was sure she could stay out of trouble. She'd had that strange dream – the one about shedding her body, and going with Elena to the Island of Doom. Fortunately, it had seemed to be a real out-of-body experience, and not something she had to ponder over and try to find hidden meanings in. It didn't mean she was doomed or anything like that. Plus, she'd managed to live through another night in this brown room, and Damon had to come and get her out soon. But not before she had a sugarplum. Or two. Yes, she had gotten a taste of one in the story last night, but Marit was such a good girl that she had waited for dinner to have any more. Dinner was obtained in the next story about the Dustbins, which she'd plunged into this morning. But that contained the horror of little Marit tasting her first hand-caught piece of raw liver, fresh from the hunt. Bonnie had hastily pul ed the little star bal off her temple, and had determined not to do anything that could possibly get her on a human hunting range. But then, compulsively, she had counted up her money. She had money. She knew where a shop was. And that meant†¦shopping! When her bathroom break came around, she managed to get into a conversation with the boy who usual y led her to the outdoor privy. This time she made him blush so hard and tug at his earlobe so often that when she begged him to give her the key and let her go by herself – it wasn't as if she didn't know the way – he had relented and let her go, asking only that she hurry. And she did hurry – across the street and into the little store, which smel ed so much of melting fudge, toffee being pul ed by hand, and other mouth-watering smel s that she would have known where she was blindfolded. She also knew what she wanted. She could picture it from the story and the one taste Marit had had. A sugarplum was round like a real plum, and she'd tasted dates, almonds, spices, and honey – and there may have been some raisins, too. It should cost five soli, according to the story, but Bonnie had taken fifteen of the smal coppery-looking coins with her, in case of a confectionary emergency. Once inside, Bonnie glanced warily around her. There were a lot of customers in the shop, maybe six or seven. One brown-haired girl was wearing sacking just like Bonnie and looked exhausted. Surreptitiously, Bonnie inched toward her, and pressed five of her copper soli into the girl's chapped hand, thinking, there – now she can get a sugarplum just like me; that ought to cheer her up. It did: the girl gave her the sort of smile that Mother Dustbin often gave to Marit when she had done something adorable. I wonder if I should talk to her? â€Å"It looks pretty busy,†she whispered, ducking her head. The girl whispered back, â€Å"It has been. Al yesterday I kept hoping, but at least one noble came in as the last one left.† â€Å"You mean you have to wait until the shop's empty to – ?† The brown-haired girl looked at her curiously. â€Å"Of course – unless you're buying for your mistress or master.† â€Å"What's your name?†Bonnie whispered. â€Å"Kelta.† â€Å"I'm Bonnie.† At this Kelta burst into silent but convulsive giggles. Bonnie felt offended; she'd just given Kelta a sugarplum – or the price of one, and now the girl was laughing at her. â€Å"I'm sorry,†Kelta said when her mirth had died down. â€Å"But don't you think it's funny that in the last year there are so many girls changing their names to Alianas and Mardeths, and Bonnas – some slaves are even being allowed to do it.† â€Å"But why?†Bonnie whispered with such obvious genuine bewilderment that Kelta said, â€Å"Why, to fit into the story, of course. To be named after the ones who kil ed old Bloddeuwedd while she was rampaging through the city.† â€Å"That was such a big deal?† â€Å"You real y don't know? After she was kil ed al her money went to the fifth sector where she lived and there was enough left over to have a holiday. That's where I'm from. And I used to be so frightened when I was sent out with a message or anything after dark because she could be right above you and you'd never know, until – â€Å"Kelta had put al her money into one pocket and now she mimed claws descending on an innocent hand. â€Å"But you real y are a Bonna,†Kelta said, with a flash of white teeth in rather dingy skin. â€Å"Or so you said.† â€Å"Yeah,†Bonnie said feeling vaguely sad. â€Å"I'm a Bonna, al right!†The next moment she cheered up. â€Å"The shop's empty!† â€Å"It is! Oh, you're a good-luck Bonna! I've been waiting two days.† She approached the counter with a lack of fear that was very encouraging to Bonnie. Then she asked for something cal ed a blood jel y that looked to Bonnie like a smal mold of strawberry Jel -O, with something darker deep inside. Kelta smiled at Bonnie from under the curtain of her long, unbrushed hair and was gone. The man who ran the sweetshop kept looking hopeful y at the door, clearly hoping a free person – a noble – would come in. No one did, however, and at last he turned to Bonnie. â€Å"And what is it you want?†he demanded. â€Å"Just a sugarplum, please?†Bonnie tried hard to make sure her voice didn't quaver. The man was bored. â€Å"Show me your pass,†he said irritably. It was at that point that Bonnie suddenly knew that everything was going to go horribly wrong. â€Å"Come on, come on, snap it up!†Stil looking at his accounting books, the man snapped his fingers. Meanwhile Bonnie was running a hand over her sack-cloth smock, in which she knew perfectly well there was no pocket, and certainly no pass. â€Å"But I thought I didn't need a pass, except to cross sectors,†she babbled final y. The man now leaned over the counter. â€Å"Then show me your freedom pass,†he said, and Bonnie did the only thing she could think of. She turned and ran, but before she could reach the door she felt a sudden stinging pain in her back and then everything went blurry and she never knew when she hit the ground.